Friday, April 30, 2010

Blind Luck Lookin Lucky for the Kentucky Oaks

I have yet to fully process the past performances for the 2010 Kentucky Derby and yet I can happily report that I am already heavily invested in the race via future pool and my Oaks/Derby double. (Expect a proper Derby preview, with picks, on Saturday morning.)

Thanks to my Derby Future Pool 1 wagers, I have reason to cheer for Jackson Bend and Super Saver. Here are the details of that wager. To see the probable payouts for yourself, please CLICK HERE.

Note the typo as I inadvertently scratched the box for William's Kitten

Pool 1
$5 to win on Aikenite (54-1), Jackson Bend (27-1), Super Saver (20-1), Vale of York (26-1) totals $20

$1 EXA Aikenite (54), Jackson Bend (27), Super Saver (20), Vale of York (26) OVER Aikenite, Jackson Bend, Super Saver, Vale of York, Lookin At Lucky, FIELD totals $21

Notes: The FIELD probables from Pool 1 include: Sidney's Candy, Line of David, Mission Impazible, Ice Box, Stately Victor, Endorsement, Devil May Care, Discreetly Mine, Dean's Kitten, Interactif, Awesome Act, Paddy o Prado, Homeboykris, Backtalk

$2 Exacta Probable Payouts:
Jackson Bend with
Super Saver = $1109.80
Lookin At Lucky = $371
FIELD = $177

$2 Exacta Probable Payouts:
Super Saver with
Jackson Bend = $907.80
Lookin At Lucky = $499.40
FIELD = $176.40

I won't be retiring off this wager, but at least I'm in with a shout.

My second Kentucky Derby wager is a simple $1 Derby/Oaks double. I'm convinced that Blind Luck is going to be a dominant winner of the Oaks. With that in mind, I've taken a very simplistic approach and keyed the winner of the Las Virgenes Stakes over the Derby field.

In 2009, the $2 Oaks/Derby Daily Double of Rachel Alexandra and shocker Mine That Bird paid $248.40. That number is lower than expected likely due to the fact that Rachel was a 3-10 monster on the day. I think we'll get a decent price on Blind Luck (6-5?) in the Oaks in a large field.

Recent history suggests there is money to be made playing the double if you can find a longshot.

In 2008, Proud Spell and Big Brown provided a $37.80 payoff. The 2007 edition saw a chalky result with Rags to Riches and Street Sense teaming up for a paltry payout of $23.80. In 2006, longshot Lemons Forever and Barbaro paid made bettors bellow with a smashing $890.20 return.

I hope to walk into Woodbine on Saturday knowing I'll have a double winner in my back pocket and I won't feel too upset should a 99-1 shot shock the field in the expected slop.

Why so high on Blind Luck you ask? Well, a good friend - and far better handicapper than myself - emailed me with the following little tidbit, "...not one horse except Blind Luck can run the last 1/16th in less than 6 flat and that makes her virtually unbeatable on a fast dirt surface with all the pace anticipated up front."

I'll be using It's Tea Time, Quiet Temper and Crisp underneath in various exotic combinations.

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Speaking of fillies, there's a few good ones running on Saturday at Woodbine in the $150K Fury Stakes.

Ian Howard's Resentless is the likely favourite having won two of five starts in 2009 for earnings of $184,476. Resentless wired the field in the $150,000 Ontario Lassie Stakes at 1 1/16 miles in her last start of 2009. Also entered is Roan Inish who won the Princess Elizabeth Stakes for trainer Carolyn Costigan last fall. Jockey David Moran returns to ride Roan Inish.

Both fillies are on my watch list for the Queen's Plate though I'll hold off from adding the ladies to the list of contenders until much closer to the event. Here is the field for the Fury Stakes.


1 – Copperelle – Emma-Jayne Wilson – Ian Black

2 – Attitude Included – Corey Fraser – Mark Casse

3 – Roan Inish – David Moran – Carolyn Costigan

4 – Oil Painting – Patrick Husbands – Josie Carroll

5 – Bodua – Eurico Rosa da Silva – Mike Doyle

6 – Resentless – Chantal Sutherland – Ian Howard

7 – Jenny’s So Great – Luis Contreras – Gregory De Gannes

8 – Tee Game – Slade Callaghan – Mike Doyle

There are a few 2010 Queen's Plate contenders getting into the gate this weekend at Woodbine.

In race one on Saturday, Where's The Fire takes on six others in a $20K claiming event. Obviously, the Where's The Ring progeny is going to need a huge race to stay on the long list of contenders for the Queen's Plate. To see the entries, please CLICK HERE.

In race seven on Saturday, Forest Run - a Malcolm Pierce trained Sam-Son Farms horse - takes on ten others in a seven furlong $68K MSW sprint. To see the entries, please CLICK HERE.

In race six on Sunday, Ruhtro and Atlantic Key take on six others in a $32K claiming event. It will take a big effort in this event to keep this pair on the contender list. To see the entries, please CLICK HERE.

In race eight on Sunday, Forever Awesome and Big Red Mike taken on seven others in a $76K Allowance route. The race is to be contested at a mile and fourty yards. To see the entries, please CLICK HERE.

Based on my recent mini-interview with Big Red Mike's assistant trainer Martha Gonzalez, I know the barn will be hoping for a big effort albeit in tough company.

Recent workouts of 2010 Queen's Plate contenders include:

* King of the Swamp worked 5F in 1:02.40 handily on the Woodbine poly on April 29, 2010 Rank 29/49.

* Hollinger breezed 6F in 1:12.60 on the Woodbine poly on April 30, 2010 Rank 1/7.

* Dark Cloud Dancer breezed 4F in 47.40 on the Woodbine poly on April 30, 2010 Rank 1/44

* It's Time Bear breezed 5F in 1:01.40 on the Woodbine dirt on April 30, 2010 Rank 5/14.

* Abruptly breezed 4F in 47.60 handily on the Woodbine poly on April 30, 2010 Rank 7/44.

* Dashing Tom breezed 5F in 1:01.60 on the Woodbine dirt on April 30, 2010 Rank 6/14.

* Doctor Jack breezed 5F in 1:01.80 on the Woodbine poly on April 30, 2010 Rank 27/60.

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Check back Saturday morning for my Kentucky Derby selections and you can keep up-to-date with the latest in the world of horse racing by clicking on my
Woodbine News tab.


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Andrew said...

Continuing to pick winners, nice job! Although I have to say I still can't believe she won that race, I'd swear Evening Jewel got it.