Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Perception Is(n't) Reality

All perceiving is also thinking, all reasoning is also intuition, all observation is also invention. ~ Rudolf Arnheim

* * *

They say that history is told by the victors. The same does not hold true for horse racing. At least as it applies to handicapping.

Anyone who has ever wagered on a race and lost is guilty of imposing their own version of events into the facts.

The jockey shouldn't have stayed on the rail.

How do you get beat by a horse with no form.

Why didn't they send the horse to the lead.

At an OTB down the block some punter pats themselves on the back.

Outside post is key here.

This trainer is deadly with firsters.

Lone speed kills.

I heard tell of a horse who travelled from a track with a synthetic surface to one where the oval was filled with nature's own. Faced for the first time with kickback, the exasperated equine sulked to a stop as the jockey feared for the health of his new companion. Fear not, the horse was fine and a fortnight thereon deemed ready to race once more - and this time at a lower price.

Of course, there was no room for the above paragraph in the past performances.

With a game plan in mind, the former 'fraidy bounced boldly off the rail and away from careening clumps of earth and mud. Racing gamely down the lane, the horse dug its hooves into the sweet surface crossing the wire first.

The people rejoiced.

Dropped in for nearly half the price - easy money.

Except for those that didn't.

The trainer cheated us.

Or perhaps a trainer simply found a suitable spot to win a purse and some much needed feed money.

Many handicappers take losing a horse race personally. Hours spent perusing past performances wasted in the time it takes to route to the wire.

It's easy to understand why a punter would get upset.

All the form cycles and analyzing and speed figures and bounce factors and minutiae applied to single out just one likely winner only to discover that sometimes it's what you don't know that counts.

***

There is a $139,205 Pick 6 Carryover at Santa Anita this afternoon. Hunch bettors take note to spend a little extra green on covering Irish Pepper and The Legal Blonde (IRE) in the first leg. As well, you would do well to include Glass of Red (IRE) in the closer - and then celebrate with same.

***

Plate contenders are getting fit in anticipation of a meeting with Her Royal Highness in July.

* Captain Canuck breezed 4F in 52 on Palm Meadows dirt on March 17th. Rank 20/22

* Fastin Bear breezed 3F in 36.60 on the Woodbine dirt training track on March 17th. Rank 26/89

* Race for Gold breezed 4F in 49.20 on the Woodbine dirt training track on March 17th. Rank 17/38

* Abruptly breezed 3F in 36.40 on the Woodbine dirt training track on March 17th. Rank 16/89

* Vicar Street bullet breezed 5F in 1:01.40 on the Ocala All Weather track on March 17th. Rank 1/8

***

In honour of St. Patrick's Day, Triple Dead Heat is proud to present a great moment in Irish history. Enjoy.



Happy St. Paddys!

3 comments:

Tote Board Brad said...

Contrary to popular belief, history is NOT written by the victors. It's written by the writers. Keep it up, hoss.

Ernie said...

Cool, hardcore horseplayer post. I've used everyone of those lines in slight variations.

Hope to see ya soon

Keith - TripleDeadHeat said...

Thanks for the kind comments good friends.

See you both by the rail soon!